A Strange Primary Season Approaches

by David Morse

I know who will be the next president of the United States. Also, I will buy some ocean front property in Moscow. It has a unicorn farm. Any political analyst who claims certain knowledge of the major party nominations for president is delusional, inattentive or lying. Oh certainly, we have our hopes, fears and probabilities. But this is one of the most altered and confusing political seasons in the history of the United States. Even excluding the wide open cast of both major-party races and the regular political intrigue, there is still the fact that the nominating process has turned upside-down.
First, quick polisci101… depending on the jurisdiction, each state party either selects its delegates using either a primary or a caucus. Caucuses are a gathering of party members in an informal town meeting with apportionments based on head counts for candidates. Primaries are simple ballot votes.
In politics, timing is everything. Traditionally, primaries and caucuses have been held in Iowa and New Hampshire first. Then after the 1st Tuesday of February, state parties hold their nominations along the next 6 months. Spread out nominations enables the vetting process of candidates and direct competition in early states, with early wins propelling candidates forward.
After 2004, the DNC decided to move Nevada’s and South Carolina’s nominations before February 5th, 2008 as well. The RNC chose to hold status quo.
However, now the state parties have gotten into a “Me-first” fight. According to the latest NASS calendar of 2008 primaries/caucuses, Wyoming republicans moved up their nomination to Jan. 5. Iowa is on Jan. 14. Nevada and S. Carolina Republicans are on Jan 19. Florida and S. Carolina Democrats are on Jan. 29. New Hampshire is marked TBD and Michigan and Ohio are poised to move their primaries before Feb. 5th as well.
Not to mention all the big states that moved their date up to February 5th itself.
This leap-frog process has forced Mama DNC to pull out the belt on Florida. Florida democrats chose to follow the lead of the Florida legislature and consider the vote on Jan. 29 to be determinative, instead of hold a separate caucus a week later. The DNC is withholding all Florida’s delegates to the democratic nominating convention as an example to other states planning to leapfrog ahead. If Florida democrats don’t back down, front-runner Hillary Clinton will take the hardest hit, as her popularity in the state would assure her the largest portion of delegates. Meanwhile, Papa RNC took a few state parties behind the woodshed as well. Florida, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Michigan and South Carolina will all lose half their delegates at the republican nominating convention unless they fall in line as well. This will affect any republican candidates who have put their emphasis on those states as well.
The question remains will these groundings get the states in line, or will the house of cards fall. At this point, it is anybody’s guess.
But, just as a side note, Kansas has opted not to hold a presidential primary election for 2008.